A Strategic Hydropower Megaproject in Tibet
China has officially commenced construction of the Medog Hydropower Station (also referred to as the Yarlung Zangbo or Motuo Dam) in Mêdog County, Tibet, on 19 July 2025. With a projected capacity of 60,000 MW—making it the world’s largest hydropower project—it is estimated to generate around 300 billion kWh annually, roughly triple that of the Three Gorges Dam. The financial outlay for this project exceeds ¥1 trillion (approximately US$137 billion).
Strategic and Environmental Concerns Downstream
India and Bangladesh have voiced strong concerns. They warn the dam could severely disrupt downstream water flows, especially during dry seasons, and even manipulate releases to cause devastating floods. Environmentalists spotlight the dam’s location in one of the planet’s most biodiverse and ecologically vulnerable regions—a gorge deeper than the Grand Canyon—and fear irreversible ecological damage.
Geological risks are also paramount: the project lies in a highly seismically active zone, raising the specter of landslides, glacial lake outburst floods, and structural failure under stress.
India’s Response: Strategic Defense Through Hydropower
New Delhi sees this dam as a potential tool for "weaponizing water". One Indian analysis suggests that the dam might reduce Brahmaputra flows by up to 85% during dry periods. In response, India has fast-tracked plans for the Upper Siang Multipurpose Storage Dam in Arunachal Pradesh. With a storage capacity of around 14 billion cubic meters, it aims to moderate dry-season shortages and serve as a buffer against sudden water releases from China.
However, the proposal has stirred local unrest. Up to 10,000 villagers and over 100,000 others could be impacted, prompting community protests and heightened resistance to displacement. Authorities are offering compensation, deploying armed surveying teams, and engaging in talks with affected communities—but the timeline for construction remains murky, with completion likely in the 2030s.
Complexity of Water Security and Ecology
Some Indian experts caution that concerns may be overstated, noting that the Brahmaputra is largely monsoon-fed, with only 15–35% of its flow attributed to Chinese contributions. Still, the absence of a bilateral water-sharing treaty between India and China hampers cooperative governance, and India continues to call for transparency and data-sharing—a plea made repeatedly by the Ministry of External Affairs and raised by Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar in bilateral talks.
Geopolitically, control of the Brahmaputra could grant China considerable leverage, with analysts warning of sediment disruption affecting agriculture, ecological fallout, and potential use of the dam as a tool in future disputes.
Summary Table
| Dimension |
Implication |
| Strategic |
China gains potential control over downstream water flow; India accelerating its own dam as a counter-strategy. |
| Environmental |
Threats to biodiversity, sediment flow, and ecological stability in vulnerable Himalayan zones. |
| Seismic Risk |
High potential for geological disasters in the earthquake-prone region. |
| Social Impact |
Large-scale displacement and community resistance related to India’s planned dam. |
| Diplomatic Outlook |
Persistent risk due to absence of treaties and mistrust over data-sharing; calls for transparency continue. |
Conclusion
China's construction of the Medog Hydropower Station has cast a large shadow over regional water dynamics, sparking renewed debates on ecological resilience, equitable access, and strategic security in South Asia. India’s response—through infrastructure and diplomacy—reflects a complex balancing act between water sovereignty, environmental stewardship, and geopolitical strategy.
